Foster Care Education Outcomes: New Research Challenges the 3% Myth

For years, it was com­mon to hear that only 3% of young peo­ple in fos­ter care grad­u­ate from col­lege. That sta­tis­tic — drawn from small, decades-old stud­ies — shaped how the pub­lic, pol­i­cy­mak­ers and even stu­dents them­selves thought about fos­ter care edu­ca­tion outcomes.

But new research tells a dif­fer­ent sto­ry. A sys­tem­at­ic review of the best avail­able stud­ies between 2000 and 2023 shows that while chal­lenges remain, young peo­ple with fos­ter care expe­ri­ence are achiev­ing far more than out­dat­ed sta­tis­tics suggest.

The Annie E. Casey Foun­da­tion high­light­ed some of the find­ings dur­ing a Sen­ate Cau­cus on Fos­ter Youth brief­ing this sum­mer, empha­siz­ing what they mean for prac­tice and pol­i­cy to sup­port old­er youth as they tran­si­tion from fos­ter care to inde­pen­dent adulthood.

Updat­ed Data on Fos­ter Youth Education

The Sec­ondary and Post­sec­ondary Edu­ca­tion Out­comes of Stu­dents with Expe­ri­ence in Fos­ter Care study, led by Nathanael Okpych of the Uni­ver­si­ty of Con­necti­cut, is the most com­pre­hen­sive review in a gen­er­a­tion. It found:

• Fos­ter youth high school grad­u­a­tion: 69%–85% com­plete a high school diplo­ma or GED com­pared to 95% of young peo­ple overall.
• Fos­ter youth post­sec­ondary edu­ca­tion enroll­ment: 29%–64% enroll in col­lege or oth­er post­sec­ondary programs.
• Fos­ter youth col­lege com­ple­tion: 8%–12% earn a two- or four-year degree by their mid- to late 20s. By con­trast, about 49% of young adults in the gen­er­al pop­u­la­tion com­plete a degree — a five-fold difference.

These results replace the long-stand­ing 3% myth with a more accu­rate pic­ture: progress has been made, but major chal­lenges remain.

Why These Fos­ter Care Find­ings Matter

The new research reflects two impor­tant realities:

1. Progress: Many more young peo­ple with fos­ter care expe­ri­ence are com­plet­ing high school and pur­su­ing college.
2. Chal­lenges remain: Fos­ter youth col­lege suc­cess still lags far behind that of their peers, large­ly due to bar­ri­ers such as unsta­ble hous­ing, loss of finan­cial sup­ports at age 21 and lim­it­ed access to men­tor­ing or guidance.

Prac­tice Impli­ca­tions: Sup­port­ing Stu­dents on Campus

The research makes clear that stu­dents with fos­ter care expe­ri­ence face unique hur­dles on the path to grad­u­a­tion — from fre­quent school and place­ment changes in high school to los­ing finan­cial and hous­ing sup­ports when they age out of care. Many enroll lat­er than their peers or progress more slow­ly because they must bal­ance school with the chal­lenges of liv­ing inde­pen­dent­ly. At the same time, pro­grams like col­lege aid ini­tia­tives, men­tor­ing and state-lev­el tuition waivers have proven effec­tive in boost­ing fos­ter youth col­lege suc­cess when imple­ment­ed con­sis­tent­ly. The chal­lenge is that these sup­ports are avail­able only in cer­tain states or at cer­tain col­leges, leav­ing out­comes high­ly depen­dent on where a young per­son grows up.

“This new research con­firms what we’ve long known — that young peo­ple with fos­ter care expe­ri­ence are capa­ble of suc­cess when the right sup­ports are in place,” said Cather­ine Lester, asso­ciate direc­tor of the Casey Foundation’s Fam­i­ly Well-Being Strat­e­gy Group, which works to ensure young peo­ple tran­si­tion into adult­hood from fos­ter care suc­cess­ful­ly. ​“The study under­scores the impor­tance of invest­ing in prac­ti­cal strate­gies like cam­pus-based sup­port pro­grams, sta­ble hous­ing and strong adult con­nec­tions. These are not extras; they are essen­tials that help young peo­ple move from fos­ter care into adult­hood with the skills and con­fi­dence they need to thrive and expe­ri­ence well-being.”

Pol­i­cy Impli­ca­tions: Clos­ing Gaps With Bet­ter-Informed Investments

While young peo­ple with fos­ter care expe­ri­ence are achiev­ing more than ever before, the new edu­ca­tion out­comes data con­firm that they still face sig­nif­i­cant obsta­cles to col­lege suc­cess that could be addressed by state and fed­er­al pol­i­cy changes.

“These find­ings offer pol­i­cy­mak­ers a more accu­rate pic­ture of how youth with fos­ter care expe­ri­ence are doing in school and col­lege,” said Todd Lloyd, senior pol­i­cy asso­ciate for child wel­fare at Casey. ​“The data show progress, but they also reveal large gaps com­pared to the gen­er­al pop­u­la­tion. That’s why we need to mod­ern­ize finan­cial aid poli­cies, expand tuition waivers and vouch­ers and sta­bi­lize fund­ing for cam­pus sup­port pro­grams. With bet­ter pol­i­cy design and imple­men­ta­tion, we can close these gaps and give all young peo­ple a fair shot at com­plet­ing college.”

By invest­ing in proven pre-col­lege and on-cam­pus sup­port ser­vices, extend­ing fos­ter care beyond age 18 to pro­vide young peo­ple sta­bil­i­ty dur­ing their col­lege years, expand­ing access to finan­cial aid and advanc­ing poli­cies that rec­og­nize the real­i­ties of stu­dents’ lives after fos­ter care, pol­i­cy­mak­ers can ensure that all young peo­ple have the chance to com­plete their edu­ca­tion and build a strong foun­da­tion for adulthood.